September 9, 2018

By Mark Blanton

Now that a couple of games have been played, I think we have more insights about what Ole Miss will look like this season in Matt Luke’s 2nd campaign at the helm. I’m throwing out the SIU tape when it comes to offense, but I think that game has something to say about the Rebel defense that bears mentioning.

By the Numbers: Ole Miss Rebels in 2018 v. Texas Tech

Total offense: 546 yards (336 passing, 210 rushing)

Total defense: 486 yards allowed (300+ passing, 164 on the ground)

Turnover margin: -1

TOP: 23 minutes

Special Teams: 4 field goals, 1 KRTD (kick return touchdown)

Ole Miss grades out pretty similarly to Louisville in that the offensive numbers are fantastic but the defensive numbers leave much to be desired. The offense is in the top 20 numerically; the passing numbers are simply incredible and will be broken down in the position group section. However, the defense is simply not good, giving up 41 points to Southern Illinois and almost 500 yards of total offense to Texas Tech.

Ole Miss Offense v. Alabama Defense

Overall, I think this will be the most intriguing matchup in the game. Ole Miss’s wide receivers are arguably the best position group in the country; the “Nasty Wide Outs” of A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf and DaMarcus Lodge would pose an immense challenge for any defense. Such a challenge is stiffened when one realizes that Alabama is very green in the secondary; Deionte Thompson is a returning player at safety but almost everyone else is a first-year starter or player at their respective positions. I expect Ole Miss to attack this by playing 4 and 5 wideout sets pretty frequently throughout the game and go with a no-huddle offense to try and tempo out the Bama D.

Ole Miss’s attack is led by Jordan Ta’amu, a junior quarterback from the JUCO ranks. Many in the Rebels camp thought that even if Shea Patterson had not transferred to Michigan, Ta’amu would have won the starting job regardless. Ta’amu did exceptionally well against Texas Tech, throwing for over 300 yards on 32 attempts with a QBR rating of 75 out of 100. What really separated Ole Miss from Texas Tech with the team’s superior special teams play and explosiveness; the Red Raiders really couldn’t match either one.

For Alabama, the defense has had a great showing against the run but allowed over 250 yards through the air against Louisville. I think the Ole Miss run game will do better than Louisville (hard not to when the Cardinals only gained 16 yards), but will not gain the same amount of yardage unless the Ole Miss offense really explodes against the Crimson Tide. Statistically, the defense grades out around No. 15 or so (if one uses final total defense numbers from last year as a guide); exceptional, but atypical from the Tide and weaker than expected, given that it has played two unranked teams this year.

Alabama Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense

This matchup leans heavily in favor of the Crimson Tide. Alabama’s offense has been nothing short of exhilarating on the ground and in the air. In relatively limited action, Tua Tagovailoa has looked incredible with his understanding of the game, throwing ability, running ability, decision making and overall QB skills (looking off safeties, eye discipline and feeling pressure, etc.). Alabama’s skill positions are no slouches either; Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Damien Harris, Irv Smith Jr., Najee Harris and others highlight a Tide offense that may be Nick Saban’s best in his tenure.

For Ole Miss, the defense leaves much to be desired. It has given up a ton of yardage to Southern Illinois and Texas Tech and didn’t look great in either contest (although they were much improved in the 2nd half against SIU). The key will be for the Ole Miss offense to keep the Alabama offense off the field if the Rebels are to compete against the Tide.

Overall Impressions

Alabama should win this game. Its defense is weaker than normal; I expect Ole Miss to use tempo to great effect against an inexperienced secondary. However, that will give the Alabama offense numerous opportunities to make its impact on the game. For Ole Miss to win, it desperately needs this game to be a shootout. This will be Tua’s first true road game as a starter; I expect him to do well against a Rebel defense that grades out very poorly amongst the Power 5. Ole Miss will score points, but Alabama should win this contest handily.

Alabama 45, Ole Miss 28

 

August 28, 2018

By Mark Blanton

In arguably the biggest game of Week 1, Michigan travels to South Bend to play the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a top 15 matchup. In order to examine how the Wolverines might fare against the Golden Domers, it might be helpful to look at Notre Dame’s stats and recruiting classes.

2017 Notre Dame Fighting Irish:

Points scored per game: 34 (top quarter of FBS)

Points per game: 21 (also top quarter)

Yards per game: 448 (top quarter)

Yards allowed per game: 369 (closer to mid table at 46th)

Record: 10-3

Wins against top 25: 4

Spread for Week 1: Michigan -2

Notre Dame poses interesting questions for the Wolverines going into Week 1 after a season with more ups than downs. The wins against Southern California, LSU, NC State  and Michigan State certainly were great accomplishments for a team that wasn’t even bowl eligible the year before. However, the Irish has some gut punches as well, namely the 1 point loss to SEC champion Georgia, the disaster in South Florida against the Hurricanes, and the self-destruction against Stanford. The main theme in their big wins and bad losses was turnovers; the Irish were plus several against Michigan State and USC and either even or in the red against UGA, Miami and Stanford.

Offensively, Notre Dame was heavily reliant on the running game guided by quarterback Brandon Wimbush, and I expect that to continue this year. Of the Irish’s 448 yards per game, about 270 of those were gained on the ground by either Wimbush or Josh Adams. With Adams going to the defending Super Bowl champs, it remains to be seen whether the Irish will be able to replicate or better that backfield’s production. Being one-dimensional is not the best of realities when going against a Don Brown defense, so I expect the Irish to struggle to move the ball during this game.

The real strength of this Irish team was in the offensive line. Quenton Nelson looks to be a potential star for the Colts, and the returning players look to be a solid unit for the Irish this year. I think the key matchup in this game will be the Irish offensive line vs the Wolverines front 7; both units have NFL Draft prospects and will be key to each team’s chances to win the game.

The defense, like the offense, is above average for the Power 5. There are certainly NFL prospects on this team in linebacker Te’Von Coney, defensive back Julian Love, and defensive tackle Jerry Tillery. However, this unit gave up a lot of yards for a CFP title contender last season, albeit against a difficult schedule. If Michigan can move the ball and sustain drives against the Irish, then I believe that they will win rather easily.

Recruiting Class 

The Irish had a top 10 recruiting class this year, highlighted by players such as defensive back Houston Griffith and wide receiver Kevin Austin. Although there were no five star players in Notre Dame’s most recent class, the Irish make up for it with a lot of four-star and several three-star players arriving in Northern Indiana.

Overall Impressions

I think this is a very winnable game for the Wolverines. The offensive line for the Irish will still be exceptional, but losing Quenton Nelson will be a big blow. Winovich, Bush and company should be able to stop the Irish run game, forcing Brandon Wimbush into a mistake or two through the air. Shea Patterson and the new-look Michigan offense won’t look perfect, but they will be able to move the ball enough to score points if they avoid the turnover bug. It will be relatively close, but Michigan should be able to leave South Bend with a much-needed top 15 win in the bag.

Prediction: Michigan 27, Notre Dame 21

Editor’s Note: I’ll be doing opponent previews every week prior to Michigan/Alabama playing a Power 5 opponent. Video wise, I’ll do my normal preview/recap videos every week for the week’s big games (including Michigan/ND).

August 27, 2018

By Mark Blanton

Alabama is playing Louisville to open its season Saturday in Orlando. To really get a feel of how the Tide matches up against the Cardinals, I’m going to look at Louisville’s stats from last season, its incoming recruiting class, and other factors I think are relevant in determining how the Tide will look and play against its ACC opponent.

By the Numbers: 2017 Louisville Cardinals

Points per Game: 38 (near the top of college football)

Points Allowed per Game: 27 (near the middle of the FBS)

Yards Per Game: 544 (top 3 in the Power 5)

Yards Allowed Per Game: 388 (not even in the top 50 of FBS)

Record: 8-5

Wins against top 25: 0

Spread for Week 1: Alabama -24.5

It seemed to be either massive feast or relative famine for the Cardinals in 2017. Louisville scored points in every game it played except against Clemson, where they were held to a measly 7. Even with a bad showing or two, this offense was among the best in the junior circuit and moved the ball with ease against much of its Power 5 opposition.

However, the same could not be said against the ranked teams that it played. Louisville lost to ranked NC State, Clemson, and Mississippi State and unranked Boston College and Wake Forest. All of this amounted to a team that was roughly mid-table in every respect in college football overall.

I expect the offense to take a step back this year, but not as large of one as some may expect. The Cardinals offense ran around Lamar Jackson in 2017; he had 18 rushing touchdowns and a plethora of passing yards and scores. Losing him will be a major blow to this team; one cannot simply replace that level of production overnight. However, Petrino teams have always scored points and created issues for their opponents. When he has the right personnel, Petrino can get a program to punch above its weight; Arkansas enjoyed a couple of 10-win plus seasons prior to dismissal at Arkansas after being fired for cause.

However, that defense was downright atrocious. The points allowed per game wasn’t bad, but the yardage allowed by the Cardinals was. Admittedly, when one plays as fast tempo as the Cardinals do, you’re going to have more possessions, more yards, and more points scored against you. But the relative ease with which middling teams cut through them causes questions to be asked about how this team will fare with lesser offensive capacity against the defending national champs.

Recruiting Class

Louisville seems to have a good, but not amazing class of freshmen this year from. The Cardinals attracted a mix of 4 and 3-star talent, which is about what I would expect from a mid-table Power 5 team. Their recruiting class finished 32ndish in many class rankings, which is about in the middle of the Power 5 and the ACC. Inside linebacker Robert Hicks seems to be the most hyped player of the Cardinals’ entering class coming out of the Miami-Dade area; ESPN had him at 4 stars and 24/7 seems to agree. Overall, this is Petrino’s best ever class coming to the Commonwealth, matching Charlie Strong’s best class that contained future college star and NFL QB Teddy Bridgewater.

Overall Impressions

I expect Louisville to come out with guns blazing on offense to try to take advantage of a young Alabama secondary. It remains to be seen if Tua or Jalen will start, but I expect Tua to start for the Crimson Tide on Saturday. Defensively, I just don’t think Louisville has the talent to stop a physical team like Alabama over the course of 4 quarters. The Cardinals will score some points and beat the Vegas spread, but the Crimson Tide shouldn’t struggle in this one.

Final Prediction: Alabama 45, Louisville 24

 

August 26, 2018

By Mark Blanton

With less than a week out before the regular season kicks off for many and after Hawaii’s big win in Colorado, the time has come to preview Michigan’s fourth season under Jim Harbaugh.

Schedule:

@ Notre Dame

v. Western Michigan

v. SMU

v. Nebraska

@ Northwestern

v. Maryland

v. Wisconsin

@ Michigan State

v. Penn State

@ Rutgers

v. Indiana

@ Ohio State

This schedule is one of the most difficult in the country. Michigan must travel on the road to no less than 3 top 15 teams and must host 2. Notre Dame will pose a large challenge in week 1; it looked like it was heading to the CFP before the Turnover Chain Hurricanes derailed the Irish in Miami. Western Michigan and SMU serve as schedule padding before the conference season starts; Nebraska will likely be a multi-year project with Scott Frost but could pose a challenge. Northwestern is always a tricky game, with the Wildcats claiming a top 15 victory at home in each of the past few seasons. Maryland should not pose much of a challenge for the Wolverines. The real difficulty for Michigan comes on the back 9; Jonathan Taylor and the Wisconsin Badgers come into town after that and arguably pose the biggest challenge to the Wolverines this season. If that wasn’t enough, the Wolverines must travel to East Lansing to face a talented Spartans team and come home to welcome Penn State in back-to-back weeks. After facing Rutgers and Indiana (neither of which should pose a challenge), the Wolverines travel to Columbus to face Ohio State in the Game. More detail will come in the next few weeks about these opponents. Overall, Michigan has very little room for error if it wants to win the Big Ten, reach a New Year Six game or reach the playoff.

Storylines

Much improvement on the offensive side

It was very hard to imagine a worse offense among the major programs than Michigan’s last season. Michigan was able to run the ball at times but unable to do much else. The offense was good in bursts but really could not keep up with high-scoring opponents like Penn State or put away good opponents like Ohio State when it had a two-score lead.

However, the offense is slated for a lot of improvement last year. Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson comes from a high-flying Rebel offense under Matt Luke; it remains to be seen how he adjusts from a spread offense to a professional-style offense, but I anticipate little difficulty for him to do so. Donovan Peoples-Jones, Karan Higdon, and other skills players should have a better year with experience and a better quarterback. The offensive line was simply horrible last season; it looks to be a lot better this season. Overall, look for Michigan to score more points and sustain more drives than last season.

Same old, same old on the defensive side

Michigan’s real strength over the past few years has been with its defense. Last year, the defense was exceptional, allowing around 18 points per game with an incredibly difficult in-conference schedule. The defense could have done even better if the offense had been able to move the ball consistently. Returning stars like Rashan Gary, Chase Winovich and Devin Bush anchor an exceptional unit that kept Michigan in some and won Michigan several games throughout last season. Don Brown has been one of the best coordinator hires of the past several years in all of college football.

Recommended Viewing: Michigan Football over the past two years. There have been a few hiccups such as the Penn State game, but everything else has been exceptional. Much of the team’s struggles have come from the offensive end.

Verdict: Overall, this is a team that compares very favorably to many of the other top-15 teams. It remains to be seen if the offense will be good enough for Michigan to win enough games to make the CFP (although it is highly likely that the offense will be better). This schedule is a real bear; Michigan ultimately has too little room for error. Expect the Wolverines to make a really good bowl game but not the playoff.

 

July 5, 2018

By Mark Blanton

Hello everyone! I’ve been thinking of embarking on this project for a few years, but I’ve never put fingers to keyboard until today. This blog, as the title suggests is all about football – both handegg and futebol. What I aim to do with this blog is to provide insightful analysis into the games that I richly enjoy from my own perspective.

What will the blog look like?

I primarily plan to have several types of written content for the blog: game reviews, opponent previews, season previews, and explanations of certain systems, plays and philosophies in the game. This will mostly focus around Alabama and Michigan, but will also foray into soccer and potentially other sports as well.

How will this affect your videos?

I still plan to have Facebook Live videos pretty frequently now that football season is picking up. This blog seeks to provide information for topics that I didn’t address in a video or will go into more detail than the video format can provide.

Conclusion

Overall, I look forward to embarking on this journey with all of you and seeing where this expedition will take me.

Be sure to look out for Mark’s Alabama preview in the next 48 hours or so.

Good company in a journey makes the way seem shorter. — Izaak Walton

 

Editor’s note: Under “Recommended Viewing,” I’ve suggested game tape you can watch to demonstrate what I’m talking about conceptually in the article. It should be easy enough to find on YouTube, but I won’t link to it here to avoid potential copyright issues. 

July 6, 2018

By Mark Blanton

Football is almost upon us! With less than a month to go before the games commence, it’s a good time to take a look at the defending national champions and how they might fare coming into the new season.

Schedule:

Alabama vs. Louisville (Orlando, FL)

Alabama vs. Arkansas State

Alabama @ Ole Miss

Alabama vs. Texas A&M

Alabama vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

Alabama @ Arkansas

Alabama vs. Missouri

Alabama @ Tennessee

Alabama @ LSU

Alabama vs. Mississippi State

Alabama vs. The Citadel

Alabama vs. Auburn

As schedules go, this is a very light one compared to what Alabama has faced in previous years. Louisville has just lost Lamar Jackson to the NFL; it is hard to imagine that the Cardinals will be able to match Jackson’s dynamism (but I’ll have more to say about this later). Arkansas State, Louisiana Lafayette and the Citadel should all be easy wins for the Tide. Ole Miss has a hard road of sanctions ahead of it with Rebel alumnus Matt Luke at the helm; they look to be a .500 team and no match for the Tide. This is Jimbo Fisher’s inaugural season with the Aggies; this game could be tricky for Alabama but I doubt that the Aggies could give Bama a hard time. Arkansas is coming off of a horrible season and might very well finish last in the West this season. Mizzou has NFL quarterback prospect Drew Lock but not much else to speak of; I’d put them in the same category as Texas A&M. Jeremy Pruitt has a multi-year project ahead of him in Knoxville; this isn’t the year that the Vols will challenge the Tide. Ed Orgeron looks to be on the hot seat at LSU with a declining offense and extremely difficult schedule. There’s always the possibility for an upset, but I firmly expect Alabama to be at 9-0 after the LSU game.

However, the schedule becomes far harder from then on out. Mississippi State returns dual-threat quarterback Nick Fitzgerald and many starters on both offense and defense. Its new head coach, Joe Moorhead, is an offensive wizard; his work with Saquon Barkley and Trace McSorley lead Penn State to a New Year Six Bowl win over the Washington Huskies. Although the game is in Tuscaloosa, Mississippi State will be a very tough out and could potentially be more than the Crimson Tide can chew. This game may very well have College Football Playoff repercussions.

Recommended Viewing: Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines in 2017 or just Penn State tape generally from that year. 

After the playing bye week of the Citadel game, Auburn comes into Tuscaloosa to close out the season. Auburn loses a lot of its offensive line and running game, but returns Jarrett Stidham and an overall solid roster. Auburn’s schedule is very difficult; it faces Pac-12 favorite Washington in the season opener and has to travel to Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi State. Nevertheless, the Tigers will be a tough out for Alabama and potentially a must win game for Alabama to advance to the College Football Playoff.

Recommended Viewing: Auburn vs. Alabama & Georgia @ Jordan-Hare in 2017; see also Auburn @ Clemson in 2017 for a good defensive performance against such a system. 

After the regular season finishes, I would expect to see Georgia or potentially South Carolina emerge from the East. Georgia would be the tougher game, but South Carolina has Jake Bentley and a steadily improving roster that could throw the Bulldogs off of their perch.

Overall, Alabama has as good of a shot as ever to make the College Football Playoff for the fifth consecutive time and potentially be the one seed in that tournament. However, it is unclear what form the team will take to get to that point.

Storylines

What form will the team take on defense?

This question is heavily intertwined with the quarterback battle. Alabama has lost a lot of starters on defense. DaRon Payne, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Anthony Averett, Rashaan Evans, Shaun Dion Hamilton and Ronnie Harrison have all left for the NFL. The incoming recruiting class brings in several defensive backs to replace the multiple departures; it remains to be seen if those players can fit in and excel immediately. Eyabi Anoma, Jaylen Waddle and Patrick Surtain Jr. all look to be future stars for the Tide; former LSU Tiger Saivion Smith has signed as a junior college transfer.

Raekwon Davis, Anfernee Jennings and several other players are coming back for the Tide, but the team has lost Terrell Lewis to season-ending injury and Jeremy Pruitt to become the head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers. Although the quarterback debate is sucking a lot of the oxygen out of the Crimson Tide atmosphere, the strength and quality of its trademark defense could pose a larger issue for the Tide going forward.

Recommended Viewing: Compare Alabama vs. Clemson, 2017 CFP Semifinal (starters present) with Alabama vs. Mississippi State & Auburn in 2017 (starters absent against good teams) to illustrate potential shortcomings of the 2018 team. 

Jalen vs. Tua: This story doesn’t look like it will settle down anytime soon. The fundamental question that Nick Saban and Mike Locksley must face is what kind of football team they want Alabama to be; both potential quarterbacks offer a proven way forward but have varying degrees of risk and upside.

The case for Jalen: Jalen Hurts has been a perennial winner ever since he set foot in Tuscaloosa; amassing a 26-2 record prior to the national championship game. Hurts does not make many mistakes; he is a very strong runner and sneakily fast and elusive when you watch him live. If Alabama goes with Jalen as the starting quarterback, we have a pretty good idea what that would look like, considering the two years of film on the subject. Alabama would utilize a lot of read options, run-pass options (RPOs), bootlegs, draws, etc. The idea would be to control the pace of the game by running the ball, scoring some points, and letting the defense do the rest.  This formula was what propelled Alabama to 3 titles in 4 years from 2009-2012; Saban acknowledged in 2014 that “we had a really good team to run the ball” and “it was smart to play the way that we did.”

Recommended Viewing: Alabama-Tennessee at Neyland Stadium in 2016. I consider this to be one of the best showings of what a Jalen-led offense can do. Jalen mixes in just enough throwing to be dangerous but really excels in the read option, quarterback run and other facets of the offense.  

The case against Jalen: Jalen’s major weakness is that he cannot reliably complete wide open deep or intermediate throws; a defense playing Alabama can take advantage of this by stuffing the run box and making life hard on the Alabama offense. This limits Alabama’s upside against opponents that can routinely move the rock on the Bama D; Auburn, Mississippi State and Georgia all had success during the latter half of the season. Although Alabama won two of those three games, its defense had to make plays at several junctures to keep them in the game. The defense may not be as strong this year as it was last year. Hence, Alabama may need more upside than Jalen can provide, particularly as the calendar turns to November.

Recommended Viewing: 2016 Alabama vs. LSU, 2017 Alabama @ Auburn, Alabama vs. Clemson & Alabama vs. Georgia.

The case for Tua: Tua Tagovailoa simply adds a whole other element to the Alabama offense that it has never truly had under Saban: a laser show passing game. Alabama was always known as the team that won with a “game manager” quarterback or despite its quarterback; Tua can change that dynamic overnight. Under the circumstances, Tagovailoa was magnificient in the Georgia game; he came in at halftime trailing by 2 scores in the national title game and brought home the trophy to Tuscaloosa. Did I mention that he was a true freshman who was playing high school football the year before? Trent Dilfer raved about Tua at the Elite 11; he looks to have all of the upside of a future NFL first-round draft pick. Under Tua, Alabama’s defense would not need to perform as well as it would need to under Jalen; the offense would score more points more quickly than in the past. The players at the skills positions are very young but talented and Tua would have veteran halfback Damien Harris and young gun Najee Harris to hand the ball off to get a couple of much needed yards.

The case against Tua: Tua’s strength can also be his weakness. His ability to rocket the ball into tight spaces can also lead him into trouble against veteran secondaries and defenses. Tua threw a couple of interceptions last year and threw balls that should have been intercepted but were dropped. Tagovailoa sometimes makes erratic decisions that cost Alabama; the pick six against Tennessee and the horrible sack in overtime against Georgia come to mind immediately. This could give the defense headaches if it has to keep cleaning up Tagovailoa’s mess game after game for the Crimson Tide to win.

Recommended Viewing: Tagovailoa’s playing stints during the Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Georgia games. 

Verdict: Overall, Alabama should choose Tua Tagovailoa as its starter going into this next season. Tagovailoa’s upside is higher than Hurts’s and the mistakes can be limited by proper gameplanning and coaching for the Hawaiian signal-caller. However, there is also a case to be made for the tried and true SEC veteran in Jalen Hurts. The Texan doesn’t make many mistakes and keeps a hold of and control of the ball in a way that favors Alabama. However, the offense has been stymied far too may times in Hurts’s tenure; Alabama has been lucky to escape some games with wins. In order to defend the national title this season, Nick Saban should turn to Tagovailoa at quarterback.

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